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Experts predict rubel to fall to 9,200 against US dollar by year’s end

 

The Belarusian rubel’s exchange rate against the US dollar will be 9,200 at the end of 2013 and 9,500 at the end of 2014, the Research Center of the Institute for Privatization and Management, predicts in a report unveiled in Minsk on June 13.

“The balance that has established recently in financial markets is rather fragile,” the report says. “The monetary authorities aim to somewhat loosen monetary policy but intend to ensure a relatively stable level of the nominal exchange rate.”

This policy can be successful only if external borrowings are used, the Research Center says.

“This scenario assumes that the nominal exchange rate will be 9,200 and 9,500 rubels for one dollar at the ends of 2013 and 2014, respectively,” the report says. “But in case of a shortage of external loans, the depreciation of the national currency may be much more significant.”

As for inflation, the Research Center forecasts an inflation rate of 17.8 percent for 2013 and 9.6 percent for 2014.

The Belarusian government has set an inflation target of 12 percent for 2013. BelaPAN