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It is unlikely that Belarus will implement IMF recommendations, expert says

It is unlikely that Belarus will implement the anti-crisis recommendations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Syarhey Balykin, leader of the Association of Small and Medium-Sized Businesses, told BelaPAN on Tuesday.

On May 31, the Council of Ministers and the National Bank of Belarus applied to the IMF for a stabilization loan. Prime Minister Mikhail Myasnikovich told reporters the following day that Belarus was seeking to borrow $3.5 billion to $8 billion from the Fund.

The IMF recommends the Belarusian government to float the exchange rate of the Belarusian rubel, refrain from pay increases and restrain credit and money creation.

"IMF experts are suggesting quite reasonable measures to improve the economic situation and control the economy with market instruments," Mr. Balykin said. "Such measures worked in other countries, but Belarus, as we know, has its own 'special' path. I doubt that the current government will be able to use those instruments efficiently. Firstly, it has no experience of work in market conditions. Secondly, it doesn't market reform since market reform brings freedom. Meanwhile, the smallest pocket of freedom scares our government, especially amid instability."

Although Belarus is perfectly capable of devising a program of market reform for the IMF, no such program has ever been implemented in full, Mr. Balykin said.

International organizations may be under the false impression that the Belarusian government understands the situation in the country and even knows how to recover from the crisis, he said. "Experts may make the wrong conclusions after talking to some officials," he said. "Both the Council of Ministers and the National Bank have competent employees who understand very well the country's current problems. Yet, however nice talking to them may be, they have very little real power and cannot make decisions independently."

Only one person makes decisions in Belarus, and the government simply implements them, Mr. Balykin concluded.